In EPA projected that these rules—even though they cover just new sources—would cut annual methane emissions by , tons in , rising to , tons in From here on I have switched from metric tons to short tons, the unit of measurement EPA uses. Using its year global warming potential, , tons of methane is equivalent to more than 44 million tons of CO 2 —the annual emissions of more than 10 coal-fired power plants. That was less than our report recommended, but still a substantial start. Or should I say, different impulses. Above all, the impulse to roll back Obama-era pollution limits, including those on oil and gas.
So they tried other gambits.
These early efforts were improvised, half-baked, and so far unsuccessful. The proposal relied on anonymous industry claims that the standards were too difficult to meet. The monitoring and repair program is so simple and straightforward that no one was actually breaking a sweat carrying it out. That is doubly untrue. Those requirements apply only in areas of the country with unhealthy levels of ozone smog or areas directly upwind. EPA offers a trio of lame excuses: that existing sources will eventually be taken care of by voluntary industry programs, state standards, and turnover of old equipment.
But only some companies have voluntary programs, only a few states regulate, and old equipment will take many years to turn over. None of these is a valid reason for EPA not to do its job. The reason is simple: The methane standard curbs emissions from more equipment and operations, further down the line, than the VOC standard.
Processing plants the second column in the figure above separate out other chemicals and send a nearly pure stream of methane commercial-grade natural gas further down the line. So leakage from equipment from the wells to the processing plants is a mixture of VOCs and methane. But what leaks from equipment farther down the line is almost purely methane. Wheeler knows this. As mentioned, in EPA designated the whole oil and gas industry—from the well pad through storage facilities—as one industrial category.
Wheeler is hoping this helps cover up repealing the limits on methane leaks from new equipment located downstream of the processing plant. Well, sorry, Andy, we saw what you did there. Wheeler also hopes cutting the industry into smaller pieces will raise the hurdle for a future administrator to regulate the transmission and storage segments.
The proposal asks, in various ways, how small the categories can be defined, and how big a share of climate pollution they must account for in order to trigger regulation. First, make the kids smaller.
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Second, make the chairs bigger. And leave the rest for a third movie that might never get made. By slicing industries into pieces, and at the same time raising the bar for finding a significant contribution, EPA could have a way to give a free pass on climate pollution to other big industries. This runs counter to everything we have learned about avoiding climate catastrophe.
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If you are a faculty member, you may place exam copy orders through the password-protected West Academic faculty page once you have set up an account. Should you have any difficulties with their site, please call West Academic customer service at or e-mail support westacademic. Since the Environmental Law Institute last published the Superfund Deskbook in , superfund law and policy have continued to evolve. This book updates and expands on his four previous Starr, Amy J.
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Dickman bring together over one centuryof combined experience in complex criminal environmental cases to create a practice-oriented reference Read more Natural Resource Damage Assessment Deskbook, Second Edition This Deskbook provides a comprehensive survey of the law, science, and economics involved in natural resource damage assessment. Written by experts in the field, this second edition of the Natural Resource Damage Assessment Deskbook provides the most up-to-date analysis of the Principal components analysis searches for a few uncorrelated linear combinations of the original variables that capture most of the information in the original variables.
Geometrically, the first principal component is the line of closest fit the n observations in the p dimensional variable space. Some immediate thoughts we had on Wahl and Ammann was that Dr. Mann lists himself as a Ph. Ammann on his resume. As I testified in the second hearing, the work of Dr. Ammann can hardly be thought to be an unbiased independent report. It would have been more convincing had this paper been written by a totally independent authority, but alas this is not the case.
It is our understanding that when using the same proxies as and the same methodology as MM, Wahl and Ammann essentially reproduce the MM curves. Thus, far from disproving the MM work, they reinforce the MM work. The debate then is over the proxies and the exact algorithms as it always has been. If you disagree, please state the basis for your disagreement. Answer: We do disagree. The fundamental issue focuses on the North American Tree Ring proxy series, which Wahl and Ammann admit are problematic in carrying temperature data.
If one centers the data properly the hockey stick does not emerge until PC4.
Were you aware of their reanalysis of MBH99 prior to the time you finalized your report? Do you agree or disagree with their reanalysis of MBH99? Answer: Yes, we were aware of the Wahl and Ammann simulation. We continue to disagree with the reanalysis for several reasons. Wahl and Ammann reject this criticism of MM based on the fact that if one adds enough principal components back into the proxy, one obtains the hockey stick shape again.
This is precisely the point of contention. It is a point we made in our testimony and that Wahl and Ammann make as well. A cardinal rule of statistical inference is that the method of analysis must be decided before looking at the data. The rules and strategy of analysis cannot be changed in order to obtain the desired result. Such a strategy carries no statistical integrity and cannot be used as a basis for drawing sound inferential conclusions.
A careful viewer would know to temper such expectations by paying close attention to the reconstruction error bars given by the wide gray regions. However, even these are misleading because these are, in fact, pointwise confidence intervals and not confidence curves for the entire sample path of surface temperature.
Furthermore, the gray regions themselves fail to account for model uncertainty.
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North and others. National Academies Press, FIGURE O-4 Multiproxy reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere surface temperature variations over the past millennium blue , along with year average black , a measure of the statistical uncertainty associated with the reconstruction grey , and instrumental surface temperature data for the last years red , based on the work by Mann et al. It should also be emphasized that the error bars in this particular figure, and others like it, do not reflect all of the uncertainties inherent in large-scale surface temperature reconstructions based on proxy data.
Records of NH [Northern Hemisphere] temperature variation during the last 1. There are very few long records with high temporal resolution data from the oceans, the tropics or the SH [Southern Hemisphere].
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Box 6. These consist of individual, or small regional averages of, proxy records collated from those used by Mann and Jones , Esper et al. These records have not been calibrated here, but each has been smoothed with a year filter and scaled to have zero mean and unit standard deviation over the period to Figure 5. Individual reconstructions see Appendix 5. Reconstructing NH [Northern Hemisphere], SH [Southern Hemisphere] or global-mean temperature variations over the last years remains a challenge due to limitations of spatial sampling, uncertainties in individual proxy records and challenges associated with the statistical methods used to calibrate and integrate multi-proxy information Hughes and Ammann, ; Jones et al.
The database of high-resolution proxies has been expanded since AR4 [i.
http://panicni-poremecaj.com.ba/components/map23.php Integration of low-resolution records e. While this has fostered debate about the extent to which proxy-based reconstructions provide useful climate information e. Briffa and Timothy J. Science , May 7, An uninformed reader would be forgiven for interpreting the similarity between the year temperature curve of Mann et al.
Unfortunately, very few of the series are truly independent: There is a degree of common input to virtually every one, because there are still only a small number of long, well-dated, high-resolution proxy records.
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Cook and others. Quaternary Science Reviews , November Map of the Esper et. Each solid red dot represents one of the 14 sites used. NOTE: The point of the quotes above is that the study uses only six sites for the entire time period covered by the study. Furthermore, the above-referenced map shows that these sites are unequally distributed, with the only two sites in North America, located in the Southwestern U. Also, when such studies are cited in the media, timeframes are sometimes overstated and important caveats are often lost, such as the fact that the study strictly represents Northern-Hemisphere, land-only, extra-tropical temperatures.